Darnell (Seize The Day)

The future of the Fediverse could not seem brighter right now! Numerous services ranging from Tumblr, to Post.News, to Flipboard & even WordPress are embracing ActivityPub (what enables Fediverse services to communicate with each other), & it seems as if all of cyberspace is attempting to figure out their place within the Fediverse.

However there is one entity entering the Fediverse whose goals are less about allying with various ActivityPub platforms & more about assimilating the Fediverse as we know it.

Insta-Assimilation via InstaPost‽

As many within the geekverse are aware, Instagram is planning on entering the Fediverse via their Twitter killer app code named Barcelona, which will be a decentralized alternative to Twitter.

Facebook’s smaller sibling Instagram has yet to give their pet project Barcelona an official name, so for the sake of this article we shall call it “InstaPost.”

So what is the purpose of InstaPost‽ Is it to Zuck up Musk after Elon’s SpaceX rocket blew up—along with Facebook’s leased satellites‽

Maybe. Ok, probably not!

Even though ending Twitter would make Mark Zuckerberg smile, Zuck’s ultimate goal is to ensure the dominance of the socialverse by his F-verse (pun intended).

If Zuckerberg is unable to buy out future competition (like he did with Instagram & WhatsApp), then he will attempt to bury it instead.

Since buying the Fediverse is impossible, Zuckerberg will attempt to displace any future Fediverse app using the dreaded strategy known as the three E’s.

Embrace The Zuck (Heavy Meta)

InstaPost will probably embrace the Fediverse with great fan fare. Media personalities & celebrities will love it as it will enable them to join the Fediverse (as it will be the fashionable thing to do) & since people can use their Instagram credentials, the sign up process will be seamless.

You will probably see Instagram gush about the Fediverse, & prove how the service can interact with Mastodon, Misskey, etcetera, without having to select which server to join.

InstaPost’s entrance of millions of users (probably hundreds of millions of users) will spell the death knell for Twitter as celebrities join the service. As a bonus, Instagram will allow blue check marks from celebrities & paying commoners to automatically be applied upon their InstaPost accounts.

Within a few months, InstaPost will probably represent 60% of the entire Fediverse, & it would not be surprising to see InstaPost generate revenue via advertising upon the service.

Of course many admins within the Fediverse will respond by blocking or limiting interaction InstaPost in a vain attempt to cripple the service before it over whelms the Fediverse.

However, Zuck will anticipate this action & respond in a way to make it nearly impossible to thwart his plans for decentralized social domination.

Extend The Empire (One Login to rule them all)

After signing up over 100 million users, InstaPost will probably extend it’s reach by releasing it’s software to hosting providers & offering support via software updates.

However, this support will probably come with the prerequisite that requires Instagram as the main (if not only) login option. In essence, it will be one login option to rule them all.

InstaPost will claim that using Instagram as the primary (if not only) login is necessary to ensure the security of the service as well as limit spam & impersonation.

This will appeal to many businesses who want an easy way to interact with future customers without having to spend extra resources on creating another secure logging system.

As more hosting companies offer InstaPost as a “one click option,” we will see InstaPost’s influence reach nations who have previously banned Zuck’s social networks (like China 🇨🇳 & Russia 🇷🇺), allowing Zuckerberg to reach billions of people in order to become something Twitter always aspired to be—the digital town square.

Note: In places where Instagram is banned, Facebook would establish an alternative login approach, by creating local companies within restricted nations (to handle logins) who will be an exception to the Instagram login requirement rule.

Extinguish The Competition‽

As InstaPost gains popularity amongst the hosting masses, we will probably see Zuck attempt to diversify revenue generation away from advertising at the expense of rival Fediverse apps.

InstaPost could offer inexpensive managed hosting for customs domains at unreasonable rates (say between $5-$10 per month) which will include support for premium features like:

• Live Streaming
• Unlimited video & image storage options
• Built in email account with custom domains
• 24/7 customer support

By initially offering low prices for people seeking a premium federated experience, InstaPost can “condition” the masses to expect high quality features & services at discount prices. Once most of the competition disappears, they will gradually raise prices, blaming “inflation & cost of living” to make up the difference.

InstaPost will also attempt to center themselves as the de facto payment service for the Fediverse, using Meta verification for Instagram & Facebook as a way to ease customer concerns of doing business online.

Can InstaPost Be Stopped‽

Short answer is no; long answer is yes.

InstaPost is going to wash over the Fediverse like Tsunami & while it will bring in tens of millions (if not hundreds of millions) of folks into the Fediverse, it will also potentially kill off numerous Fediverse projects as legacy social companies begin to adopt ActivityPub as the decentralized standard.

InstaPost will probably kill off Twitter as well as BlueSky & utterly replace Twitter as the digital town square in 2024 as celebrities, politicians, government institutions & the non crazy folks abandon Twitter en masse.

However, if large rival hosting companies (like Microsoft, Amazon, & Google) as well as numerous smaller ones can be convinced to offer one-click hosting for Fediverse platforms (similar to how many offer one-click installs for WordPress), we could witness platforms like Mastodon, Misskey, Pixelfed WriteFreely, etcetera, increase to 100 million users, then they will maintain enough momentum to avoid being bullied by the larger, legacy social platforms (as Instagram & Facebook will probably join the Fediverse later on).

👨🏾‍💻 by @darnell@darnellclayton.com 🔛 @darnell@darnell.day

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